If you are considering rooftop solar and waiting for “the right time,” the next few months may not be the bargain window they once were. McKercher Corporation is currently forecasting a market-wide increase of approximately 15–20% in residential solar panel pricing across Q1 and Q2 2026, driven by a convergence of global supply chain pressure, higher manufacturing input costs, and a major policy change affecting exports from China.
This is not a McKercher Corporation-specific change. It is a broader pricing reset forming across the supply chain, from factories and exporters through to importers, distributors, and installers.
What is driving the increase
- China VAT changes are lifting export costs (from 1 April 2026): China is the dominant manufacturing base for solar PV products, and a confirmed policy change will remove VAT export rebates for photovoltaic products from 1 April 2026. This effectively raises the export cost base and can flow into global wholesale pricing, particularly as suppliers reprice forward orders and buyers adjust procurement plans.
- Input costs have become more volatile: Solar panels are manufactured at scale, but they are not immune to commodity and component cost swings. Recent industry reporting highlights rising cost pressures from key inputs—silver, for example, is a significant cost component in modern modules and cell manufacturing. When these upstream costs climb, manufacturers either absorb margin compression or pass costs forward through the supply chain.
- Supply constraints and production decisions can tighten availability: Even when global nameplate capacity is high, “effective supply” can tighten quickly due to plant shutdowns, production curtailments, new standards, or coordinated output reductions upstream—particularly in polysilicon, a critical input to most PV supply chains. When upstream capacity tightens, it restricts downstream throughput and supports higher prices.
Secondary factors compounding the situation
Pricing is rarely driven by one lever. The following factors tend to stack, amplifying the headline drivers above:
Currency movements: Panels and components are often priced against USD, and upstream costs are influenced by AUD/USD and AUD/CNY movements. A softer Australian dollar increases landed costs, even if the factory price is unchanged.
Shipping and freight: Global logistics disruptions and container volatility can raise delivered costs and introduce delays. Shipping costs are an input that installers and distributors cannot ignore when margins are tight. [UNCTAD]
Global demand surges: If other markets accelerate purchases (due to policy deadlines, subsidy timing, or grid constraints), they compete for the same inventory and manufacturing slots—tightening supply for Australia.
Inventory holding costs and finance/insurance: When funding and insurance costs rise, the expense of carrying inventory increases. This tends to show up as higher wholesale and retail pricing, particularly during repricing cycles.
What this means for system purchasers
If you are close to making a decision, timing may materially affect what you can install for a given budget. In many cases, a 15–20% increase on equipment pricing can translate into a smaller system size, a narrower equipment choice set, or reduced room in the budget for upgrades (such as optimisers, monitoring, or premium mounting solutions).
At the same time, it is important to keep perspective: solar remains one of the most reliable household investments in Australia. Even with a temporary pricing lift, households can still achieve strong long-term value through lower grid consumption, improved bill predictability, and greater resilience against future retail electricity price movements.
Front-line recommendation
If you are actively evaluating solar, we suggest three practical steps:
1. Request a quote sooner rather than later to secure current pricing where possible.
2. Confirm equipment availability and lead times, not just the headline system price.
3. Prioritise quality and aftercare. Market urgency is not a reason to accept poor design, rushed installation, or weaker warranties.
Next step: lock in clarity before prices move. The solar panel price increase is set to be realised commercially in Q2 2026.
McKercher Corporation is closely monitoring market conditions and will continue to provide timely and transparent guidance as supplier pricing evolves in Q1 and Q2. If you would like to explore your options and potentially secure today’s pricing within Western Australia, please contact either PSW Energy or Perth Solar Warehouse to schedule a consultation and receive a quote. Acting sooner gives you greater control over system design, product selection, and installation scheduling before broader price increases take effect.
References
Shaw, V. (2026, January 9). China to abolish solar export tax rebates in April. PV Magazine.
Jowett, P. (2025, December 29). Silver hits record high of $83.62 an ounce. PV Magazine.
- Bu, S & Woo, R. (2026, January 9). China to scrap export tax rebates for photovoltaic and battery products. Reuters
- Bellini, E (2026, January 13). Solar module prices lagging behind soaring silver costs. PV Magazine.
- Chen, X., & Jackson, L. (2025, September 17). China threatens to shut down polysilicon plants if new energy standards can’t be met. Reuters
